Manchester United’s underlying numbers are those of a top-four side. Their actual five-point haul is not.

Data published by Opta Analyst on 22 September puts Michael Carrick’s team fourth in the Premier League on expected points (xPTS) after Matchday 5, eight places above where their record has them. It is the largest underperformance in the division. United have taken more shots than any other team in the league (113), have the fourth-highest expected goals total (9.89), and have racked up 182 touches in the opposition box, another league-leading figure. What they have not done is finish anything: a shot-conversion rate of 7.1% is the fifth-worst in the division.

The Premier League’s own table has United twelfth on five points from their opening five matches.

The model is kinder to Spurs than the table

Tottenham are last in reality with two points, bottom of the Premier League for the first time in 18 years despite a summer spend north of £300m under Roberto De Zerbi. On expected points they sit twelfth, another eight-place gap, but in the opposite direction to United.

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The Analyst reads Spurs as a lower-mid-table side. Home defeats to Newcastle and Aston Villa are cited as the clearest example: 2.68 expected goals created, 1.85 conceded, no points to show for it.

That does not save De Zerbi from what he has already said in public.

“In my 14 years as a coach, I’ve never seen a team like us, so fragile and inconsistent,” the Italian told reporters after the 3-2 home defeat to Aston Villa on Matchday 5.

Newcastle have lost the xG battle in every match

If Manchester United are the model’s biggest underachievers, Newcastle are its biggest overachievers. Matthias Jaissle’s side sit ninth with eight points from a two-win, two-draw, one-loss start. Their expected points position is twentieth, an eleven-place gap that is the largest in the league in either direction.

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Newcastle have the second-worst expected goal difference in the Premier League (-3.76) and, according to Opta, have “lost” the xG battle in all five of their matches. Time spent leading (45.5% of minutes played) is offered as the main explanation: teams in front tend to defend deeper and shoot less.

The 2-1 win over promoted Hull City on 19 September, which came five days after a 4-1 defeat at Leeds, was more of the same. Jaissle told reporters his side “showed an incredible reaction, especially after the defeat at Leeds”, and added that the club is going through “a huge transition period at the moment”.

Arsenal top the expected points table with the best expected goal difference in the division (+4.44), one place above their real position of second behind pacesetting Manchester City.

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