Trump, Iran and the World Cup: Who decides who plays in 2026?

January 31, 2026 Oliver Obel

As geopolitical tensions rise ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, questions are resurfacing about whether international disputes could spill into football’s biggest tournament and how much authority the United States actually holds as a host nation.

The competition, scheduled to take place across the United States, Mexico and Canada, is due to begin in just over four months. While organisers continue preparations for the expanded 48-team event, recent U.S. policy decisions have prompted renewed scrutiny of how global politics and sport intersect.

Who actually controls World Cup participation?

Despite widespread speculation, football governance experts say the United States does not have the power to independently bar a qualified nation from the World Cup.

Under FIFA’s own rules and organisational framework, the governing body has ultimate authority over issues of competition and participation once hosting arrangements are in place. This is reflected in FIFA’s statutes and tournament governance documents. (FIFA World Cup regulations and statutes)

Professor Simon Chadwick, a specialist in geopolitics and sport who runs consultancy GeoSport and has previously advised organisations involved in major FIFA tournaments, told SPORTbible that hosting nations do not have unilateral decision-making power.

“Once a country agrees to host a FIFA event, there comes a point where the host steps aside and FIFA effectively takes control of the tournament. So this is a FIFA decision, ultimately,” Chadwick said.

Why Iran has become a focal point

Iran, which has already qualified for the 2026 World Cup, has become central to the discussion amid rising tensions with Washington.

According to Reuters, the Trump administration announced it was suspending immigrant visa processing for citizens of 75 countries, including Iran, as part of a broader immigration policy shift.

Source outlets reporting on the visa freeze noted that tourist and short-term visas the type most fans and teams would use are generally not affected by the suspension. Time reported that the Trump administration said the pause was aimed at ensuring immigrants would not depend on government assistance, and noted specific inclusion of nations such as Iran.

At the same time, Iran is experiencing widespread unrest. According to Amnesty International, Iranian authorities have responded to mass protests with unlawful and lethal force, using firearms and other prohibited measures against largely peaceful demonstrators.

Human Rights Watch also documented violent repression of nationwide protests by security forces, including mass arrests and the use of lethal force.

Separate reporting from France 24 noted that more than 6,000 deaths and tens of thousands of arrests have occurred amid the crackdown.

Could political pressure lead to exclusion?

Against this backdrop, Chadwick said it was conceivable that Washington could attempt to apply political pressure for Iran’s exclusion from the tournament though he stressed such a scenario would be legally, diplomatically and commercially complex.

“What we may alternatively see is the United States calling for the exclusion of Iran from the World Cup,” he said, referring to reporting on protest violence.

However, Chadwick dismissed suggestions that FIFA would strip the United States of its hosting rights, describing that scenario as unrealistic given the scale of the tournament and the financial commitments already in place.

He also warned that once political considerations are introduced, the issue can broaden quickly. Reuters has reported that other countries, including Colombia, have faced diplomatic pressure or threats of U.S. action in recent months, raising questions about precedent and consistency.

FIFA’s role and what happens next

FIFA has historically held that it does not make decisions of this magnitude in isolation. The organisation consults with governments, security agencies, commercial partners and broadcasters when assessing risks to major tournaments.

Chadwick said those consultations would be central to any decision involving participation or exclusion.

“They’ll be on the ground dealing with security, sponsorships, broadcasting and media operations. All of that feeds into how decisions are made,” he said.

For now, FIFA has not indicated that Iran, Colombia or any other qualified nation faces exclusion from the 2026 World Cup.

Sources: Reuters, TIME, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, France 24