West Ham United’s hopes of avoiding relegation from the Premier League have taken a severe hit, with data experts Opta now giving the club just a 12% chance of survival. This grim outlook follows a contentious 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal on Sunday, a match where a late equaliser for the Hammers was controversially ruled out by VAR.

The loss leaves West Ham on 36 points with only two games remaining, precariously close to the drop zone. Their last season outside the top flight was in 2011-12, and the club now faces the real prospect of relegation as early as next Sunday.

Disallowed goal compounds West Ham’s woes

The decisive moment against Arsenal arrived in the 83rd minute when Leandro Trossard netted the winning goal for the visitors. However, the true talking point came in added time, as West Ham thought they had snatched a vital point. Callum Wilson found the back of the net, only for the goal to be chalked off by VAR for a foul by Pablo on Arsenal goalkeeper David Raya. The decision sparked widespread debate and left West Ham manager Nuno Espirito Santo frustrated.

“It’s going to be tough. It’s not in our hands. We fight for it and we will keep on fighting,” Espirito Santo told BBC Sport after the match. “It is our responsibility – we represent a huge club and it’s our obligation to go for it in these last two games.”

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The daunting path to safety

With Wolves and Burnley already confirmed for relegation, West Ham’s battle for survival is now solely against Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs are currently one point ahead of West Ham and hold a game in hand. Tottenham could extend that lead to four points when they host Leeds United on Monday at 20:00 BST.

The scenario for West Ham is stark:

If Tottenham beat Leeds on Monday, and West Ham lose their next match at Newcastle United, the Hammers would be relegated next Sunday, a week before the season concludes.

Tottenham will secure their safety if they win two of their final three games.

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West Ham’s remaining fixtures are away at Newcastle United and a home tie against Leeds United on the final day. Due to an inferior goal difference, West Ham effectively needs to pick up at least two more points than Spurs in the run-in.

Leeds United and Nottingham Forest, who were also in the thick of the relegation scrap, have now secured their Premier League status. Forest, in particular, has shown remarkable form, topping the six-game form table and remaining unbeaten in eight matches, while Leeds is fifth in the same form table, unbeaten in six.

Should West Ham lose both of their remaining games, their tally of 36 points would be the highest total for a relegated team in a decade. Newcastle United went down with 37 points in the 2015-16 season, but in the two seasons prior, no team was relegated with 30 points or more. The average points needed for safety since the Premier League moved to 20 teams in 1995-96 has been 36 points.

Despite the challenging circumstances, West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen remains defiant. “It’s going to be tough. We never say never at this club. We have two games left. We did a lot of good things on Sunday. We have to win,” Bowen stated, echoing the sentiment of a team determined to fight until the very end.

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Sources: www.bbc.com

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