The highly anticipated Tour de France duel between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar is brewing, with recent analysis suggesting Vingegaard is returning to his peak form despite an earlier setback. After a period of illness, the Danish rider has demonstrated a “crushing display of power,” providing significant optimism for his prospects against the dominant Pogacar.

Vingegaard’s powerful comeback

Vingegaard’s journey back to top form began with a “disappointing start” in a recent race, referred to in analysis as “this Giro,” where he revealed he had been battling sickness. However, following his recovery, Vingegaard quickly found his rhythm, showcasing his expected prowess last Saturday. His strong performances have continued, culminating in a display of power “today” that was as convincing as his earlier showing.

In the race being analyzed, Vingegaard has already secured four stage wins, underlining his renewed strength. He notably gained almost a minute quickly when up against Egan Bernal, though he did lose some seconds when Felix Gall rode away and Jai Hindley sprinted towards the finish line. Impressively, Vingegaard gained more time “today” than last Saturday, despite the stage being considered easier and less suited to his strengths.

Pogacar’s dominant, yet unchallenged, Giro

Meanwhile, Tadej Pogacar entered the 2024 Giro d’Italia as the overwhelming favorite, a status he emphatically justified by winning six stages. His dominance was such that, according to cycling expert Emil Axelgaard, it was “perhaps the Grand Tour in cycling history where we had the biggest favorite. You couldn’t come up with a single scenario, excluding bad luck, where Tadej Pogacar didn’t end up as the overall winner of the three-week race. It wasn’t a question of if he would win, but simply how he would win…”

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However, Axelgaard, writing for TV 2, also highlighted a crucial caveat: the opposition Pogacar faced in the 2024 Giro was “historically weak.” This raises questions about the true measure of his form heading into a head-to-head clash with a fully fit Vingegaard.

Tour de France prospects

Looking ahead to the Tour de France, the route is considered more “Pogacar-friendly” than in the past two years, adding another layer to the rivalry. There is also lingering uncertainty regarding Vingegaard’s potential fatigue after the race being analyzed. Despite these factors, Axelgaard remains confident in Vingegaard’s capabilities.

“Of course, Pogacar is still quite the clear favorite – especially on a route that is far more Pogacar-friendly than it has been for the past two years – and there’s always that uncertainty about Vingegaard’s fatigue after the Giro,” Axelgaard stated. “But after the last two days, I’m quite confident that Vingegaard has the top level he had last year. And that was a top level that was enough to match Pogacar, if you remove his two strangely bad days, and which looked like a level that would have broken Pogacar if only there had been a fourth week.”

This expert analysis suggests that Vingegaard’s current form, following his illness and subsequent recovery, positions him strongly to challenge Pogacar, setting the stage for what promises to be a thrilling contest at the Tour de France.

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Sources: sport.tv2.dk

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