The FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 is set for an intriguing encounter on Wednesday in Seattle as Belgium face Senegal. While both nations navigated challenging group stages to reach the knockout rounds, data analytics firm Opta’s supercomputer has firmly tipped the Red Devils to advance.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Belgium holds a 46.8% chance of winning the match in 90 minutes, compared to Senegal’s 25.7%. A draw, which would lead to extra time and potentially penalties, was predicted in 27.5% of simulations. Overall, Belgium’s probability of advancing to the next round stands at 61.0%, with Senegal given a 39.0% chance.

Belgium’s late surge and key attackers

Rudi Garcia’s Belgium side enters this clash in formidable form, unbeaten in their last 16 games across all competitions (W10 D6). Their journey through Group G was a testament to resilience, as they became the first team since USA in 2010 (and England in 1990) to top their group despite failing to win either of their first two matches.

After back-to-back draws against Egypt and Iran, Belgium exploded in their final group game, securing a dominant 5-1 victory over New Zealand. This result not only sealed their top spot in Group G on goal difference ahead of Egypt but also marked their largest-ever World Cup win. Notably, Belgium scored more goals in that single match (5) than they had in their previous seven World Cup finals games combined (4).

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Key to Belgium’s attacking prowess has been Leandro Trossard, who netted twice against New Zealand and created an impressive 13 chances from open play in the group stage. This tally matches Miralem Pjanic’s record for Bosnia-Herzegovina in 2014 and places him just behind Enzo Scifo’s 15 chances created for Belgium in 1994. Romelu Lukaku also made his mark against New Zealand, scoring a goal and assisting Alexis Saelemaekers. Lukaku now boasts six goals and two assists (eight goal involvements) in World Cup action, making him Belgium’s most prolific player in tournament history since 1966.

Senegal’s goal-laden journey and knockout challenge

Senegal, under coach Pape Thiaw, secured their spot in the Round of 32 as one of the best third-place finishers, despite defeats to France and Norway in Group I. Their qualification was sealed with a resounding 5-0 thrashing of Iraq, a game in which they showcased their attacking potential.

Against Iraq, Senegal recorded their highest World Cup match statistics for:

• Shots: 28
• Shots on target: 12
• Expected goals (xG): 3.01
• Touches in the opposition box: 51

Their group stage matches were among the most entertaining, with a total of 14 goals scored (8 for, 6 against) across their three games – a figure only surpassed by Norway’s 15 goals.

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Ismaïla Sarr has been instrumental for Senegal, directly involved in four goals (3 goals, 1 assist) at this year’s tournament, matching Henri Camara’s 2002 record for goal involvements in a single edition. Sarr appears to have cemented his place as Thiaw’s preferred striker over Nicolas Jackson. Midfielder Idrissa Gueye also stands out, making 39 line-breaking passes in the group stage, the most of any Senegal player, following his tournament-high 100 such passes at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.

Historically, Senegal faces a tough challenge. They will be looking for only their second win in the World Cup knockout stages, having beaten Sweden 2-1 in the 2002 last 16. Their previous knockout exits include a 1-0 loss to Türkiye in the 2002 quarter-final and a 3-0 defeat to England in the last-16 four years ago. Furthermore, Senegal has lost each of their last four World Cup games against European teams, a stark contrast to their earlier record of only one loss in their first five such encounters (W3 D1).

First-ever meeting

This Round of 32 clash will mark the first-ever meeting between Belgium and Senegal. While Belgium has a generally strong record against African teams (W3 D2 L1, with the sole loss to Morocco in 2022), none of those matches were in the high-stakes knockout rounds. As the Opta supercomputer suggests, Belgium enters as the favourite, but Senegal’s recent attacking form and history of producing upsets ensure this will be a compelling contest.

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