England enters its FIFA World Cup 2026 round-of-32 clash against DR Congo as overwhelming favourites, with the Opta supercomputer assigning a 73.9% win probability to Thomas Tuchel’s side based on 25,000 pre-match simulations. Yet, the Leopards will be aiming to author one of the tournament’s biggest upsets when the two nations meet at Atlanta Stadium on Wednesday.
Tuchel’s England secured top spot in Group L, remaining unbeaten in 11 competitive fixtures under his guidance (W10, D1). Only Ron Greenwood (16 between 1977 and 1980) and Roy Hodgson (14 between 2012 and 2013) have enjoyed longer undefeated starts to their tenures as England managers. The Three Lions sealed their group leadership with a comfortable 2-0 victory over Panama on Saturday, a match that saw Jude Bellingham make the breakthrough with an improvised finish from a corner.
Captain Harry Kane further etched his name into England’s history books during the group stage, becoming the nation’s all-time leading goalscorer at the World Cup by taking his tally to 11 goals against Panama. A goal against DR Congo would see him draw level with Geoff Hurst (4) for knockout-stage goals for England at the FIFA World Cup, with only Gary Lineker (6) having netted more.
Anderson’s breakout performances
Despite their strong position, England’s group stage wasn’t without its challenges, including an uninspiring 0-0 draw with Ghana where they took only one point despite enjoying 78.9% possession – the highest possession in a match without winning across the entire group stage. This highlights the importance of breaking down resilient defences, a task where midfielder Elliot Anderson has excelled.
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Anderson has been a standout performer for England in the group stage, leading his team in several key metrics:
- Line-breaking passes: 30
- Possession won: 20
- Duels won: 24
Ecuador’s Pedro Vite is the only other player to achieve 20 or more in each of those categories across the group stage, underscoring Anderson’s exceptional all-around contribution.
Tuchel’s cautious approach
DR Congo, in contrast to England’s third-ranked 65.3% possession average, ranked 38th for possession average in the group stage at 38.5%. This suggests a tactical approach that could look to frustrate England’s free-flowing attack, a scenario Tuchel is acutely aware of.
Speaking ahead of the fixture, Tuchel cautioned against looking too far ahead: “If we get carried away and start talking and thinking about possible round of 16, we will just get punished. There is only one match in four days. It’s not Mexico, it’s not in Mexico, it’s in Atlanta and we need to be ready for that.”
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As detailed by Opta Analyst, England remains the clear favourite, but Tuchel’s words serve as a reminder that in the knockout stages of the FIFA World Cup, no opponent can be underestimated.
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