Alexander Zverev will walk on court at Flushing Meadows as the top seed of a major for the first time in his career. That is what happens when the world No. 1 does not turn up.

Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal, confirmed on Friday, 21 August with an ongoing right knee problem, has turned the last major of the season into the most genuinely open men’s draw in years. The main singles draw begins on Sunday, 30 August, with the men’s final scheduled for 13 September.

“Even though I have been working hard with my team and my medical staff, we have now had to make the difficult decision that I will not be able to compete at the US Open this year,” Sinner said in the statement announcing his withdrawal.

It is his first missed Grand Slam since 2019, and his camp is targeting a return during the Asian hard-court swing.

Read also: 'Jealous people with far less talent': Trump takes another shot at Cooperstown over Clemens

Alcaraz returns after four months out

Carlos Alcaraz slides up to No. 2 seed, but the defending champion arrives in New York carrying more question marks than any recent US Open holder. The Spaniard confirmed his return on 20 August after more than four months out with an inflamed tendon sheath in his right wrist, an injury that cost him Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the North American Masters 1000 warm-ups in Toronto and Cincinnati.

Going from no competitive tennis in four months straight into best-of-five sets in New York is a leap almost no defending champion has attempted at a hard-court major.

Behind him, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the No. 3 seed, and Novak Djokovic slots in at No. 4, one seeding line lower than his ranking would normally place him, purely because Sinner’s absence pushed everyone up.

Djokovic’s clearest shot at 25

Djokovic has openly framed the tournament as his best remaining chance at a record 25th major. Cincinnati offered a warning sign though: he lost his opening match to Thiago Agustín Tirante after calling for the physio, and later said he had been carrying physical issues that worsen in high heat.

Read also: Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc left frustrated as Ferrari’s biggest weakness is exposed

Hard courts are less punishing than clay, and a draw without Sinner is the draw the Serbian would have picked himself. He reached the Wimbledon semifinals and the Australian Open final earlier in 2026, and the ceiling is still there when the body allows it.

The four-way conversation at the top of the men’s draw effectively runs Zverev, Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Auger-Aliassime. Any of them lifting the trophy on 13 September would make sense. So would a first-time Slam winner breaking through, precisely the kind of storyline that a wide-open major invites.

Sabalenka chases what only Serena has done

The women’s draw is more settled at the top and, arguably, more historic. Aryna Sabalenka arrives as world No. 1 and two-time defending champion, attempting to become the first woman to win three consecutive US Open titles since Serena Williams did it from 2012 to 2014.

The Belarusian has already logged the miles in Queens this fortnight. In an unusual scheduling wrinkle, she is playing the revamped mixed doubles competition alongside Djokovic in the days before the singles begins, and the pair were beaten in round one by Henry Patten and Kateřina Siniaková.

Read also: Verstappen accepts Red Bull's demotion to F1's fourth force before Monza

Elena Rybakina, the Australian Open champion, is seeded second. Jessica Pegula, last year’s finalist, follows at three.

Gauff arrives in Cincinnati form

Coco Gauff, seeded fourth, is the American who now looks the sharpest. She dismissed Pegula 6-2, 6-4 in the Cincinnati Open final on Sunday, 23 August, to claim her second title at the event and her first anywhere on tour since Wuhan last October.

“I think it was a long journey, but I’m happy. It’s night and day, the player I was last year to now,” Gauff said after lifting the trophy.

She also tried to keep New York in perspective.

Read also: De Zerbi's blunt verdict after £320m summer: 'We are not a team yet'

“I don’t think that this is an indicator that I’m going to do well in New York. Just knowing the quality that I had this week, hopefully I can use that experience.”

The parallel with 2023, when a Cincinnati title preceded her maiden Grand Slam in Queens weeks later, will be drawn whether she encourages it or not.

Alex Eala, the Filipino teenager, is seeded 17th, giving her a shield from the top names in the early rounds.

Prize money hits a record $108m across both draws, a 21% jump on 2025, with the men’s and women’s singles champions each collecting $5.5m. First round losers pick up $140,000.

Read also: Djokovic battles health issues ahead of US Open

The main draw begins on Sunday, 30 August at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, with the women’s final on 12 September and the men’s final on 13 September.