The bookmakers moved first. Then came the leak. With 12 days to go before the trophy is lifted in London, Lamine Yamal is the firm market favourite for the 2026 Ballon d’Or, and a claim about who will present the award on stage is being treated by Spanish media as the giveaway.

Spanish reporter Juan Jesus has told readers that Lionel Messi will attend the ceremony on 26 October and personally hand the trophy to this year’s winner on stage. In Spanish and Latin American outlets, the detail has been seized on as a symbolic confirmation of Yamal: the eight-time winner handing the trophy to the Barcelona teenager, nearly two decades after a now-famous photo in which an infant Yamal was bathed by Messi at a Barça charity shoot.

Romano shuts the leak down

Within hours, the story was knocked back by Italian journalist Fabrizio Romano.

“Lionel Messi will not be presenting a trophy to any of the winners at the Ballon d’Or, as he has not been invited to do so,” Romano said on 14 October.

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Messi’s attendance at the London Palladium is still unconfirmed. He is one of the 30 nominees for the men’s prize and remains, on paper, part of the field for his own ninth Ballon d’Or.

Yamal 10/11, Kane 6/5

The betting market tells its own story, independent of the leak. Harry Kane had led the odds through most of August and September on the back of his Bayern Munich and England season. The picture flipped around the voting deadline on 28 September, when the 100-journalist panel’s ballots closed.

In the two weeks since, Yamal has been shortened into firm favourite. He is trading around 10/11 with several British firms, with Kane out to 6/5. The reigning winner, PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé, is a long-shot at 125/1 to retain the award he collected a year ago.

Ronaldo’s 1997 record in play

If the leak is right and Yamal does lift it, the record books break. Yamal, 19, would be the youngest Ballon d’Or winner ever and the first teenager to win the award, passing Ronaldo Nazário’s mark of 21 years and 3 months from 1997.

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Kane is still live. So is a split of first-place votes between Yamal, Kane and Kylian Mbappé that could reshuffle the podium. France Football has not briefed the result, and the ballots are sealed until the stage.

The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony starts at 8pm local time at the London Palladium on Monday, 26 October, the first time the award has been handed out in London.

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