The attention-grabber is Mbappé. The France captain is the man who has outscored the field in Europe this season, and the model still refuses to put him on the podium at all.
Sport’s exercise, carried in English by Goal, ranks Yamal first, Kane second and Rodri third. On the omission that defines the forecast, the model’s verdict on Mbappé reads, as reported by Goal: “Mbappé may be among the leading candidates, but a barren trophy season with Real Madrid and France could dent his chances.” The write-up adds that Messi, “big name and glittering history or not”, is also pushed out of the top three.
Mbappé’s numbers against his trophy cabinet
The statistical case for Mbappé is loud. He finished as La Liga’s top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League’s leading marksman with 15, according to Al Jazeera, and left the World Cup with the Golden Boot after scoring 12 goals.
What he does not have is silverware. Real Madrid’s season closed without a trophy and France were beaten by Spain’s run to the title, which is the exact split the model leans on.
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Kane’s 73-goal argument
Kane’s statistical argument is the one closest to Mbappé’s. The England captain scored 73 goals across club and country, Sky Sports noted in its pre-ceremony stats breakdown, on top of Bayern Munich’s Bundesliga and German Cup double.
Jamie Carragher told the broadcaster: “Kane should win the Ballon d’Or and the reason is because he’s scored 73 goals in a season and only Lionel Messi has scored more in a season.”
Yamal’s 25 goals and 20 assists are far below those numbers, but he leaves 2025-26 with a La Liga title and a World Cup winner’s medal with Spain. Rodri, named third by the model, is the Spain midfielder whose tournament performance anchors the Spanish case for both him and Yamal.
What else the model picked
The forecast runs beyond the top prize. Pau Cubarsí is tipped for best young player, Unai Simón for best goalkeeper and Luis de la Fuente for men’s coach, with Paris Saint-Germain backed to retain the men’s club prize. Kane is the model’s pick for top scorer on the night, consistent with his 73-goal tally.
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The gala at the London Palladium is scheduled to start at 8pm local time, with the men’s winner expected to be announced later in the evening, according to Yahoo Sports. Ousmane Dembélé is the holder.
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