The World Cup 2026 could lose more at the border than on the pitch

Geopolitical issues surrounding football

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is not just a sporting event, but the world’s biggest men’s football tournament, and the 2026 edition will be the largest ever. According to FIFA’s overviews of “World Cup 2026, host cities, teams and dates” and the official match schedule, the tournament will bring together 48 teams and 104 matches across the United States, Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19. This matters for readers outside the sports world because every match is also business for airlines, hotels, bars, restaurants, and local transport.

The money can disappear before kickoff

That also makes the economy vulnerable long before the first ball is kicked. According to the Oxford Economics analysis “The negative outlook for inbound tourism to the U.S. persists,” international visitor spending in the U.S. is expected to fall by $8.5 billion in 2025, while the U.S. Travel Association warns the losses could grow much larger if the current downturn continues through the year.

At the same time, FIFA noted in its announcement about FIFA PASS that the tournament, by its own estimates, could generate 185,000 full-time jobs and $30.5 billion in gross output in the U.S. That is precisely why every hesitant fan matters. The most accurate loss figure in this context is therefore $8.5 billion, not just $8 billion.

Borders have become part of the tournament

According to the U.S. State Department’s update “Countries subject to visa bond requirements,” certain B1/B2 applicants may be required to post $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000 as a guarantee to obtain a visa. The list includes Algeria, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Tunisia, countries with direct World Cup relevance.

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In another official update, the same department also states that citizens from 39 countries are now affected by full or partial visa suspensions, including Iran and Haiti with full suspension, and Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal with partial suspension. There are exceptions for participants in major sporting events, but FIFA PASS only provides faster interview scheduling, it does not guarantee a visa.

Iran has become a symbol, not the whole story

This is where Iran enters the picture, but also where the story becomes too narrow if it focuses only on Iran. AP reported that Iranian officials said participation would not be possible, but also confirmed in the article “Iran wants to move its World Cup matches from the U.S. to Mexico, FIFA sticks to plan” that Iran is still due as a participant and instead wants its group-stage matches moved from the U.S. to Mexico, while FIFA maintains the schedule. The point is that the messaging has fluctuated, but as of Thursday, March 19, 2026, there is no official plan to replace Iran with another team.

Three host countries, three different travel choices

That makes the broader narrative more important. When the tournament is shared between three host countries, even small barriers on the U.S. side can lead fans to spend more nights, meals, and transport money in Canada or Mexico instead.

This is an inference, not an official calculation, but it aligns with both Oxford Economics’ description of weaker international demand and the simple fact that FIFA and the U.S. State Department are now actively trying to ease the pressure through FIFA PASS. In other words, authorities are clearly trying to make travel easier because the uncertainty has already become part of the buildup.

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The pressure could reach the knockout stage

The knockout stage is the part of the tournament where one loss sends a team home. According to FIFA’s draw and match schedule, Iran is in Group G with Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, meaning any late change would not only affect three group-stage matches but also the path into the round of 32, the first direct elimination round.

That is why the issue is bigger than a single geopolitical conflict, as reduced fan travel, greater uncertainty, and late planning disruptions could spread from the stands to the tournament’s entire logistics. But for now, nothing official indicates that FIFA is looking for a replacement team.

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