Kylian Mbappé thinks his year has come. To get to the trophy he will have to walk through Harry Kane, ten Paris Saint-Germain nominees and a returning Lionel Messi.

France Football unveiled the 30-man shortlist for the 2026 Ballon d’Or on 8 September, and bookmakers immediately made Kane the favourite. Victory would carry its own history: no Englishman has taken the prize since Michael Owen in 2001.

The number attached to Kane’s case is staggering. He scored 73 goals for Bayern Munich and England between August 2025 and July 2026, a total Bundesliga.com calls the second-best in a single season this century, behind only Lionel Messi’s 82 for Barcelona and Argentina in 2011-12. Sixty-one of those came in Bayern colours as the club won the Bundesliga and the DFB Cup; the remaining 12 helped drive England to third at the World Cup, the country’s best finish since 1966.

Kane is trying not to think about the vote.

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“We’ll see what happens. Obviously, it’d be amazing if it was to happen, but ultimately it’s still two or three months away before that’s decided,” he said last month.

Paris Saint-Germain fills a third of the list

Paris Saint-Germain arrive with ten nominees. The Champions League holders placed more players on the shortlist than any club before them, beating the record of nine that PSG themselves had set only twelve months ago. The names are Ousmane Dembélé, Achraf Hakimi, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Ferran Torres and Vitinha.

Dembélé, last year’s winner, does not intend to give the trophy back.

“I think that the Ballon d’Or will stay in the hands of a PSG player,” he told L’Équipe.

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Asked to name a top three, Dembélé pointed to Kvaratskhelia, Kane and Mbappé. In the same interview he also ruled Messi out of the conversation.

Mbappé believes his time has come

Mbappé, 27, lost out to Dembélé a year ago and enters convinced everything is in place this time. He scored 42 goals in 44 matches for Real Madrid last season and won a second World Cup Golden Boot in New Jersey, although Spain took the final 1-0 in extra time through a Ferran Torres goal.

“I think that when you play for Real, the best club in the world, people naturally associate you with this sort of honour,” Mbappé told reporters the day before the shortlist was published.

“I have a feeling it’s a good year for that.”

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Messi returns to the list at 39

Lionel Messi’s presence on the shortlist is his first since he collected his eighth Ballon d’Or in 2023, and it is enough to complicate every ranking. At 39 he led Inter Miami to the MLS title and dragged Argentina back to the World Cup final; a ninth trophy would extend a record he already holds outright.

Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal, still 19, remains among the front runners after another strong season on the wing.

The winner is revealed on 26 October in London, marking the first time the ceremony has been held outside Paris in the award’s 70-year history.

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