A record-setting afternoon is one scoring drive away. Mahomes needs two touchdown passes against the Jets to level Manning’s mark, and a third to own the record for most TDs by a quarterback in his first 10 NFL seasons outright. Kick-off is at 12 noon local time on Sunday 8 November.

The target is 327, the figure Manning posted across his first decade in the league from 1998 to 2007, according to NBC Sports’ ProFootballTalk. Mahomes enters Week 9 on 325 touchdown passes.

A playoff weight no quarterback has matched

The headline chase is to a combined regular-season and playoff total, and that is what makes Mahomes’ 10-year window historic. His regular-season count sits at 279 touchdown passes, with another 46 produced in the playoffs, the dividend of seven straight AFC Championship appearances and three Super Bowl titles in Kansas City since he took over as starter in 2018.

Manning’s 327, by contrast, was built almost entirely in the regular season: 306 of those touchdown passes came before the playoffs. He reached the Super Bowl only once in his first decade, winning it with Indianapolis in the 2006 season.

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Three Super Bowls already on the mantelpiece

By the time he crosses Manning’s line, Mahomes will do so having already won three Super Bowl titles with Kansas City, as listed on his club profile, alongside two league MVP awards, won in 2018 and 2022, and a run of back-to-back AFC Championships that has never stopped feeding his postseason TD count.

Only Allen anywhere close

Among active quarterbacks, the only credible chaser is Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills passer reached his 259th career touchdown pass against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this season, a Buffalo franchise record that moved him past Jim Kelly and, per NBC Sports’ ProFootballTalk, has since nudged up to 260.

That still leaves him 65 behind Mahomes and years of elite production short of the 10-season pace he would need to catch him.

Sunday’s maths at Arrowhead

If Mahomes throws three scoring passes against the Jets, the record flips that afternoon at Arrowhead. If he throws one or two, Manning’s mark survives into next weekend.

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