Red Bull scored 16 points across the opening three races of 2026. They have piled on wins in Malaysia and Singapore since, hauled Verstappen back into the mix for second in the drivers’ standings, and arrived at Austin on a run that even Palmer struggled to describe in moderate terms.

“I think this Red Bull turnaround in form might be on paper, when you look at the percentage difference, I think it’s got to be the biggest,” Palmer said on the F1 Nation podcast.

A car Palmer cannot pick apart

Palmer, a former Renault driver turned analyst, tried to list the sort of corners and conditions where Red Bull used to be exposed. He found nothing.

“I look at the Red Bull with the upgrades and the weaknesses that we used to hear don’t seem to be there,” he said.

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Low-speed grip on a bumpy Singapore street layout, kerb riding, straight-line speed on the long drags of Baku and Sepang: Palmer went through them one by one and gave each a tick.

“But right now, I don’t see a weakness in it.”

Jacques points to a rear-end upgrade

Alongside Palmer, commentator Alex Jacques traced the shift to a single upgrade package Red Bull introduced at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

“Ironically, it’s an update at the rear of the car that’s unlocked the overall balance,” Jacques said.

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“Now suddenly you have Max with total confidence, with the machine that is working entirely to his liking.”

Through much of the opening half of the season, Jacques argued, Verstappen had been dragging more performance out of the car than the hardware deserved. On the podcast he put it bluntly: the Dutchman “had a car that didn’t unlock the entire potential of his difference-making driving ability.”

Rivals ‘fearing’ Verstappen again

Palmer’s reading of the driver, now that the car has caught up, was just as direct. He told the podcast the quality that had defined Verstappen’s underperforming months is now reinforcing a quicker car.

“That’s the incredible form that he showed when he didn’t have the fastest car and now he does,” Palmer said.

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“He’s formidable and I think he’s got everyone else almost fearing the battle with him.”

Palmer also offered a what-if that captured how dominant the Red Bull-Verstappen package has looked since the Monaco Grand Prix.

“If you started the championship after Monaco, Max will be champion,” he added.

Antonelli can wrap it up in Austin

The championship did not restart in May. Andrea Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers’ standings on 340 points, 102 clear of George Russell and 119 ahead of fourth-placed Verstappen on 221, according to the standings after Singapore. The Mercedes rookie can be crowned 2026 world champion at the Circuit of the Americas this weekend.

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A Verstappen win on Sunday would give him five victories at COTA, matching Hamilton’s record at the venue. He has previously won here in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025.

Lights out in Austin is at 3pm local time on Sunday, 25 October.

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