What happens if Arsenal and Man City finish level?

April 20, 2026 Oliver Obel

Arsenal and Manchester City are heading into the final stretch of the Premier League season with almost nothing separating them, raising the prospect of a title race decided by the league’s most detailed tie-break rules.

Arsenal currently sit top on 70 points, with a narrow edge in goal difference, while City remain within striking distance and still have a game in hand, according to GiveMeSport. With only a handful of matches left, even small swings in results or scoring margins could prove decisive.

If the two sides finish level on points, goal difference would be the first factor used to separate them. Given how tight the race has become, that gap could easily close before the season concludes.

Should goal difference also end up identical, the next measure is total goals scored. City currently hold a slight advantage in that category, having found the net 65 times compared to Arsenal’s 63, as reported by GiveMeSport. That edge, while small, could become crucial if both teams continue winning at a similar pace.

Beyond that, the title race could be decided by head-to-head results — an outcome rarely needed in Premier League history. Arsenal and City drew 1-1 at the Emirates Stadium earlier in the campaign, but City claimed a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium, where Erling Haaland scored the winning goal.

That result may yet carry significant weight. Under the league’s rules, head-to-head points — and, if necessary, away goals in those matches — are used if teams cannot be separated by broader metrics. In this case, City’s win gives them a potential edge if all other measures are level.

While such a scenario remains unlikely, it underlines just how fine the margins have become. The Premier League has seen tight finishes before, but rarely has a title race threatened to run so deep into the tie-break system.

City, in particular, are no strangers to narrow victories. Under Pep Guardiola, they have twice edged Liverpool to the title by a single point, in 2018-19 and 2021-22. Those campaigns were decided on consistency over 38 games, rather than secondary metrics.

The closest parallel remains the dramatic 2011-12 season, when City and Manchester United both finished on 89 points. Roberto Mancini’s side secured the title on goal difference, sealed by Sergio Aguero’s stoppage-time winner on the final day — one of the most iconic moments in Premier League history.

This season, however, could push the limits even further. With both Arsenal and City capable of high-scoring wins, factors such as attacking output and defensive discipline may carry as much weight as results themselves.

There is also little margin for error. A single draw, a late goal conceded, or even a missed scoring opportunity could ultimately shape where the trophy ends up.

For now, Arsenal remain in control, but City’s game in hand — combined with their slight edge in goals scored and head-to-head record — ensures the race is far from settled.

As the run-in continues, the title may not just be decided by who wins, but by how they win.

Sources: GiveMeSport, Premier League rules