Max Verstappen has not won a race in 2026. That is unlikely to change at Sepang either. What has changed is his relevance to a title fight he cannot mathematically win.
The four-time champion trails Antonelli by 139 points in the drivers’ standings, with eight rounds remaining and no more sprint weekends left. Russell’s third win of the season at Baku pulled him back to within 66 points of his Mercedes teammate at the top of the table.
Between the two silver cars, though, there is now a persistent orange one.
What Baku changed
Russell held off Verstappen by 0.196 seconds in Azerbaijan on 26 September, with Isack Hadjar third for Red Bull’s first double podium of the season. Antonelli crashed in qualifying, started 16th and recovered to fifth. Six drivers retired, and two safety cars wiped out an 11-second Russell lead in the closing laps.
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For Red Bull, the finish was the clearest sign yet that a recent upgrade package, comprising a new floor, diffuser and sidepod bodywork, has narrowed the gap to Mercedes. Verstappen qualified eighth after an internal combustion engine issue and still came within two-tenths of the win.
‘A great job messing up that chance’
Verstappen was blunt about the missed opportunity.
“They [Mercedes] are obviously getting an upgrade next week in Malaysia, so this was the chance to win,” he told Dutch media in the paddock after the race. “And we’ve certainly done a great job messing up that chance.”
Russell confirmed the timing in the post-race press conference.
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“We’ve got the upgrades coming soon. That’s going to be a good step forward,” Russell said at Baku. “From next week onwards, we’re hoping to make a bigger step to the rest of the field.”
Verstappen, sitting alongside Russell at the same press conference, was asked what the upgrade would mean for Red Bull’s chances of winning a race.
“If Mercedes is bringing an upgrade and it works, then they take a step ahead, and that’s not what you want. It will make it even more difficult to win,” he said, adding that Red Bull would still try every weekend and take any opening that arose.
Sepang, and how a Red Bull could tip the title
The race at Sepang on Sunday, 4 October is technically the Bahrain Grand Prix, relocated after the original Bahrain round was cancelled. Lights out is 3pm local time. It is Formula 1’s first visit to the circuit since 2017 and the opener of the final eight-round stretch.
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If the Mercedes upgrade delivers what Russell expects, Verstappen’s spoiler window closes quickly. If it does not, any race in which a Red Bull splits the two silver cars turns 25 championship points into 18 for one Mercedes and none for the other. With Antonelli 66 clear of his teammate, the arithmetic favours the Italian only as long as Russell keeps finishing directly behind him, or a car in front takes points off both of them evenly.
That car, on Baku’s evidence, is now capable of doing neither of those things for either driver.
Practice at Sepang begins on Friday, with Mercedes’ upgrade package due to run on the W17 for the first time that afternoon.
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