Red Bull Racing’s route back into the 2026 title fight, if it exists at all, has to start on Sunday at a track without a lap record, without wet-weather data and without a single overtake in its history. The Madring hosts F1’s first Madrid Grand Prix in more than 40 years, and every garage is walking in blind.
The math Verstappen carries in with him is unforgiving. After his third place at Monza on September 6, the Dutchman sits sixth on 127 points, 140 behind Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s 267. Nine grands prix remain on the calendar, ending with Abu Dhabi in December.
The constructors’ picture is worse. Mercedes lead on 468 points, more than double Red Bull’s fourth-placed total, with Ferrari and McLaren also ahead. Antonelli has now stretched his lead over his own team-mate George Russell to 66 points, and Russell is 10 points ahead of third-placed Lewis Hamilton.
Monza was a rescue job
Verstappen’s podium in Italy was less a breakthrough than a save. He had ended qualifying only sixth after a Friday he called painful, and finished third because the team found something overnight, a swing he was quick to credit.
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“We managed to have a strong turnaround from Friday to Saturday, and the car was definitely in a better window,” Verstappen told reporters after the race.
The underlying weakness he did not gloss over. Red Bull’s power unit is losing time in a straight line to the Mercedes-powered runners, and he said so directly.
“I tried to battle but we were just too slow on the straight. We just lacked the same deployment, and that basically cost us a lot because at one point it’s not defendable anymore,” Verstappen said.
That is the flaw he has to hide on a layout built around long full-throttle sections and a heavily banked corner that Pirelli says will produce the season’s highest vertical loads.
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Why the Madring is his best remaining wild card
The one advantage Verstappen has on Sunday is a clean sheet of paper. A circuit no one has raced on scrambles simulation-based setups and rewards drivers who read a fresh asphalt quickly.
The Madring is 5.414 km long with 22 corners, and its most talked-about feature is La Monumental, a heavily banked corner at the end of the lap. Pirelli have brought the C2, C3 and C4 tyre compounds, and the freshly laid surface has been cleaned with high-pressure water jets ahead of Friday’s first sessions.
For Antonelli, this is also one of his first grand prix weekends on a track where he cannot lean on prior laps. If a Red Bull upset is coming this season, this is the format most likely to deliver one.
The math still needs Mercedes to slip
Even with a Madrid win, the deficit stays punishing. To be level with Antonelli going into Abu Dhabi, Verstappen would have to outscore the Italian by an average of close to 16 points per remaining round, not counting sprint weekends. That is closer to a Mercedes fault than a Red Bull revival.
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Practice at the Madring begins on Friday, September 11. Lights out for the Spanish Grand Prix is at 3pm local time on Sunday, September 13.
