Red Bull’s day in Mexico City had everything they did not want. A collision in second practice, debris across the circuit, a red flag, damage to Verstappen’s floor and a stewards’ penalty by the evening. And yet the race simulation that came out of the same session is why they are not writing Sunday off.

Verstappen’s long-run average of 1:21.490 on soft tyres was the fifth-fastest in FP2, according to a stint-by-stint comparison published by Dutch outlet GPblog. He was only 0.048 seconds slower than George Russell on the same compound, and inside two tenths of Lando Norris, who led the segment with a 1:21.319 average.

The shape of the stint was tidier than the small sample suggests. Verstappen opened on a 1:21.963, then settled into a cluster of laps between 1:21.170 and 1:21.260, before a 1:21.276 after a short cool-down and a 1:21.523 to close.

Seven laps, not nine

He only completed seven laps in the run. Russell and Norris managed nine to eleven, which is why Red Bull are not treating the numbers as a result in themselves. Technical director Pierre Waché described the long run as “reasonably solid” but said there was still “room to work on the balance” once the floor damage had been repaired in time for Saturday’s third practice, per the same GPblog analysis.

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‘Not very smart behaviour’

The grid penalty landed on Friday evening. The stewards gave Verstappen and Lawson a one-place drop apiece and a penalty point each, escalating the sanction from a formal warning because team principals had already been reminded at a managers’ meeting about tangles in practice. Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane called the clash “clumsy”.

Verstappen’s response to the sanction itself was dismissive.

“At the end of the day, it’s not going to change my weekend,” he told The Race.

He was sharper about Lawson, who is still fighting for a Racing Bulls seat beyond this season.

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“For me, it’s just not very smart behaviour when you’re in his position to pick a fight with me,” Verstappen told Motorsport Week.

Fighting for second, not first

Verstappen’s Sunday is no longer about the title. He is fourth in the standings on 236 points, 129 adrift of runaway leader Kimi Antonelli on 365. Russell is second on 242, Lewis Hamilton third on 241, and Charles Leclerc the man immediately behind Verstappen on 233.

The four cars from Russell down to Leclerc are all within nine points of each other. Mexico City’s thin air rewards cars that look after their tyres over a stint, and the long-run numbers from FP2 are what Red Bull can point to in that fight.

Four races follow Mexico: São Paulo on 8 November, Las Vegas on 21 November, Qatar on 29 November and Abu Dhabi on 6 December. Qualifying at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez runs later on Saturday, with the race on Sunday afternoon.

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