Max Verstappen arrives at Interlagos on the back of his Mexico City win, but a pre-race simulation suggests the Dutchman and everyone chasing him are heading into a weekend the 2026 cars are not built to enjoy.
Analysis published by motorsport outlet GPblog on Thursday projects Verstappen would qualify in roughly 1:12.391 on Saturday, nearly two seconds slower than his 2025 Interlagos reference lap of 1:10.403. The gap is in line with a 2.82% average performance deficit the new regulations have produced across 17 comparable circuits this season.
Junção and the Reta Oposta are the trouble spots
The simulation points to two sections where the current cars will struggle most. “The biggest visible difference emerges on the climb from Junção,” GPblog’s analysis states, with the long uphill drag to the start-finish line limiting the chances to recover electrical energy under braking. The Reta Oposta out of the Senna S presents the same problem: battery deployment risks fading before the end of the straight.
Exit traction from the slow corners feeds every meaningful lap-time gain at Interlagos, which is exactly where the 2026 power-unit balance is hardest to manage.
Read also: The private panel that can undo Manchester City’s guilty verdict
Rain on qualifying day, cooler race on Sunday
The weather forecast will not make the car any easier to balance. Formula 1’s own session forecast puts the rain chance at 50% for Saturday’s 3pm local-time qualifying session, with track temperatures potentially peaking near 40°C if the showers hold off. Sunday’s race, due to start at 2pm local time, carries a 40% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms, with temperatures dropping to 13-19°C and wind gusts of up to 40 km/h.
Red Bull holding third, but barely
Verstappen leaves Mexico second in the drivers’ standings but 119 points behind Kimi Antonelli, who sealed his first world title on 1 November and became F1’s youngest champion at 20 years and 68 days. The constructors’ fight is tighter: Red Bull hold third on 382 points, 17 ahead of a McLaren side that has not seen the podium for four rounds.
Lando Norris won at Interlagos in 2025, and McLaren team principal Andrea Stella has lined up a new upgrade package for Sao Paulo specifically to recover race pace rather than single-lap speed.
If the storms arrive on Saturday, both teams will have to commit their new parts without a clean reference lap on a dry track.
Read also: Offical: Harry Kane signs lucrative new Bayern deal as €25m salary details emerge
Read also: Gary Lineker rates £51m Arsenal signing Ezri Konsa ahead of William Saliba
