Arsenal vs Bayern: Europe’s best go head-to-head

November 26, 2025 Oliver Obel

As noted in Opta’s analysis of the competition, both sides sit on 12 points with identical +11 goal differences through four matchdays. Opta’s modelling — cited in the original report — makes Arsenal slight favourites, handing them a 44.9% chance of victory, with Bayern at 29.9%.

Those numbers reflect the balance of strengths on display. Arsenal have yet to concede in Europe and also lead the competition in the fewest expected goals allowed. Bayern, meanwhile, travel with the joint-highest scoring total, level with Paris Saint-Germain after hitting 14.

Arsenal’s rhythm and a defensive backbone

Arsenal’s broader season tells a similar story. They have conceded only six times across all competitions, the lowest figure of any team in Europe’s top leagues. Their run of eight straight Champions League league-stage wins — by a combined 24–2 margin — is already a club record.

Sunday’s comprehensive derby victory over Tottenham only reinforced their rhythm. Mikel Arteta may again be without centre-back Gabriel Magalhães because of a thigh problem, but several regular starters who missed the weekend are edging toward availability. The expectation around the Emirates is that Arsenal will lean heavily on their settled defensive structure once again.

Bayern’s surge under Kompany

Bayern’s form has been no less emphatic, just expressed differently. According to the original reporting, Vincent Kompany’s side have won 17 of 18 games this season, dropping points only once. Their 6–2 win over Freiburg on Saturday extended their streak atop the Bundesliga to 43 consecutive matchdays, tying a decades-old club record.

Michael Olise delivered five goal involvements in that match — a rare feat in Europe’s top leagues this season — while Harry Kane and others continued their steady production. Bayern’s attack has also been remarkably unlucky at times: they have struck the woodwork seven times in the Champions League, equalling the all-time high for the opening four matchdays.

Kane’s familiar setting

Harry Kane’s influence is impossible to ignore. As reported by Opta, he has scored 15 times in 21 matches against Arsenal, including six at the Emirates — more than any away player in the stadium’s history.

While he is no longer a fixture of the north London derby, his familiarity with the ground and opposition adds a psychological layer to Bayern's attacking threat.

A fixture weighted by history

Although both teams enter in excellent form, the historical balance remains firmly in Bayern’s favour. The German champions eliminated Arsenal in the 2023–24 quarter-finals, and the Gunners have not beaten them since 2015.

Wednesday will mark the 15th Champions League meeting between the clubs; Bayern have gone unbeaten in the last five.

The stakes ahead

According to Opta’s tournament simulations referenced in the original article, Arsenal are currently the favourites to win the Champions League with a 23% chance. Bayern follow at 16%.

Both are projected to finish near the top of the league phase, though a Bayern victory would significantly alter the standings and raise the stakes heading into the final rounds.

Expected lineups

Arsenal:
David Raya; Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Piero Hincapié, Riccardo Calafiori; Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Eze; Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, Mikel Merino.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta

Bayern Munich:
Jonas Neuer; Konrad Laimer, Jonathan Tah, Dayot Upamecano, Josip Stanišić; Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Lennart Karl; Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry.
Head coach: Vincent Kompany

Sources: Opta.