Verstappen arrives at Monza on 4-6 September sitting sixth in the drivers’ championship on 112 points, 130 behind Kimi Antonelli and trailing both Ferraris, both Mercedes drivers and Lando Norris. His weekend at Zandvoort ended on lap one, when he crashed out of his home race.
That is the backdrop against which former Red Bull driver Christijan Albers has argued the Italian circuit still gives Red Bull something specific to work with.
The RB22 has been strongest with low drag and on long straights, and weakest through sustained medium and high-speed corners. Monza rewards the first and rarely tests the second.
“They’re good with low drag, so they can be competitive there,” Albers told grandprix.com.
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“I think this may be the surprise of the season.”
The case is helped by the state of the front of the grid. Antonelli is expected to take a grid penalty at Monza, removing an obstacle from Verstappen’s path that a Ferrari or McLaren circuit would not.
After Italy, Albers sees the door close
The optimism stops there. Albers does not expect the reprieve to last past Monza.
“After that, it’s over,” he said.
He expects the title fight to settle into a straight run between Antonelli and Norris, whose consecutive wins in Hungary and the Netherlands have cut Antonelli’s lead to 83 points and reset the shape of the season.
“The train is now under way, and it is unstoppable,” Albers said of Norris.
Marko: ‘I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on that’
Verstappen’s own camp offers no more comfort. Helmut Marko, the long-time Red Bull adviser who left the team ahead of the 2026 season and now works as an ambassador for the Red Bull Ring, has been openly sceptical about a repeat of Verstappen’s 2025 fightback.
“The competition from McLaren and Ferrari is simply too great and the car is also too unstable. I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on that,” Marko told gptoday.net.
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“They are not consistently fast. Moreover, it doesn’t seem to be going entirely smoothly between Max and his engineers.”
His view draws on the contrast with last year, when Verstappen clawed back a 100-point gap in the second half of the season and finished two points short of the title. This time Marko sees two teams pulling clear rather than one drifting back.
The Italian Grand Prix runs from Friday 4 to Sunday 6 September, with Antonelli’s expected grid penalty still to be confirmed.
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