The domino this September was not a bid. It was a positional decision at Camp Nou.

With Raphinha operating through the middle and drawing praise from Hansi Flick’s staff, Barcelona have parked their year-long chase of Alvarez and steered their limited resources toward defensive reinforcements. That shift was already clear on deadline day, when the Catalans reached advanced talks with Arsenal over the £8.6m signing of Gabriel Jesus, walking away from Atletico’s €500m release clause without a fight.

For Arsenal, the reset opens a route the summer never offered. Standard Sport, whose reporting has since been picked up by outlets in England, say Arsenal could seek to sign Alvarez on loan in January if his role at Atletico does not improve, with an option to buy at the end of the season.

What has changed at the Metropolitano

Alvarez started Atletico’s Champions League tie against Liverpool earlier this month, then picked up a muscular overload in his quadriceps that kept him out of La Liga fixtures against Real Sociedad and Osasuna. He returned to full training ahead of the Madrid derby on 20 September, but the Argentine started that game on the bench and came on as a substitute.

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One derby will not decide a January move. English reporting, though, describes the 26-year-old as restricted to a handful of appearances so far this season, and Arsenal are watching to see whether Simeone’s rotations turn into a longer pattern.

The summer Arsenal cannot quite forget

Arsenal’s summer plan collapsed on two fronts. Atletico were open to selling to Arsenal but refused every approach from Barcelona, and Alvarez told Mikel Arteta in person that his preference was Catalonia. According to TEAMtalk’s Graeme Bailey, Arsenal had gone as far as offering to relocate the World Cup winner’s extended family from Madrid to London, and even to build in a clause that would allow him to move on to Barcelona at a later date.

The Athletic’s Pol Ballus, cited in the same TEAMtalk piece, said in early September that a fresh Barcelona push in January would not surprise him.

“It will not surprise me if Barca sound out Atletico and Alvarez again.”

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That timeline has since slipped.

Barcelona’s slower plan

Barca Universal, quoting reporter Santi Ovalle, reported that the Catalans have set money aside for another attempt at Alvarez but no longer see it as urgent.

“Barça doesn’t want Julian for this transfer window; they want him for a five-year project,” Ovalle said.

If Barcelona are indeed waiting until the summer of 2027, Arsenal’s short-term loan route becomes less crowded, provided Atletico agree to a temporary exit and Alvarez himself changes his mind about a Premier League move.

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For now, Atletico’s stance is unchanged and the €500m release clause remains in place. English reporting puts Arsenal in front of the January queue only if the forward’s role at the Metropolitano stays as thin as it has been so far this month.

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