Gianni Infantino needs 106 votes in Rabat next March, and the arithmetic that keeps him in his seat has never been more visible.

UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin ruled himself out on Monday of running against Infantino at the 77th FIFA Congress on 18 March 2027, closing the door on the challenge many European federations had hoped for.

“I’m not interested because of two reasons. One reason is that I love UEFA and I love working here, and I think that at a certain point you have also, I mean, it’s time also to enjoy life a bit,” Ceferin said.

“My credibility is much, much, much higher if I’m not interested in the position.”

Read also: Gyokeres pushes for Barcelona move as Arteta keeps him on the bench

He still expects Infantino to face opposition if he stands.

“There are two options. One option is that he realises that he doesn’t have the support, and that’s not only a political support of the ones who vote, but the political support of [the] football community, the political support of fans, the political support of the players, former players, coaches,” Ceferin said.

Europe walks away, one letter at a time

The support Ceferin is describing has been draining out of Europe since early August, when Infantino’s FIFA Forward Enterprise plan, a proposal to open World Cup revenues to private investors, collapsed under confederation pressure.

Wales became the first association to formally withdraw its letter of support, citing “failures in good governance, processes, leadership, values, stakeholder management, communications and sound judgement.” England, Finland, Serbia and Sweden followed within days, and the six Nordic federations, including the Faroe Islands, backed calls for Infantino’s resignation, saying they had “lost confidence” in his leadership.

Read also: Did you spot it? Mbappé joins unwanted Ronaldo company at Espanyol

The three confederations that pushed back hardest against the private-investment plan, UEFA, CONCACAF and the AFC, accused Infantino of “deception” and threatened boycotts of FIFA competitions.

The maths still works without Europe

A FIFA presidential election requires a two-thirds majority in the first round. With all 211 member associations voting, that is 106 ballots, and each of the 211 federations casts its own; no confederation controls how its members vote.

That distinction matters, because Infantino’s public backing is stacked in confederations whose leaders are still with him. CAF’s 54 member associations unanimously agreed to back his re-election for 2027-2031, and CONMEBOL’s 10 South American federations endorsed him in the 2023 vote and are widely expected to do so again.

That base, if it holds together, delivers him to the low 60s. The Oceania confederation’s 11 members are undecided. The rest of the path runs through the Caribbean and the smaller AFC and CONCACAF associations, whose delegates are not bound by the confederation leadership’s public criticism.

Read also: Premier League clubs blow Europe away after spending staggering £2.37bn before deadline day

The Caribbean handshake CONCACAF tried to stop

That is why Infantino turned up in Punta Cana on Saturday for a Caribbean Football Union under-14 tournament, despite a written request from CONCACAF president Victor Montagliani to stay away.

“I believe that considering the governance crisis surrounding FIFA as a result of your controversial FIFA Forward Enterprise proposal, the media will focus on this situation, which will unfortunately significantly take away from the technical nature of the CFU youth competition,” Montagliani wrote.

Infantino went anyway, meeting the presidents of the 31 CFU nations.

Two weeks earlier he had been in Cali for the inauguration of Colombia’s new president Abelardo de la Espriella, where CONMEBOL president Alejandro Dominguez told reporters “one cannot ignore the great work” done by the FIFA president and added that “it is not necessary to always agree.”

Read also: 'You have a nice haircut': Infantino's answer when asked if he betrayed football

The nomination deadline for the March vote is 18 November 2026. Any candidate needs written support from at least five member associations just to get on the ballot.

Read also: Oscar Piastri suffers major Dutch GP setback as Lando Norris extends McLaren gap