Over the last three Tours, Evenepoel has outpaced Pogacar in every flat time trial the two have raced. The margins have grown in a straight line: 12 seconds in 2024, 16 seconds in 2025, 28 seconds this past July on the run to Thonon-les-Bains. Just over one second per kilometre, trending the Belgian’s way.
Scale the most recent gap to the 71 kilometres race organisers have packed into the 2027 route and, according to Cyclingnews, Evenepoel would start the Pyrenees around one minute and 16 seconds up on his rival on time trial time alone.
That is the projection the Belgian will cling to. The obstacle is scale. Evenepoel finished six minutes and 26 seconds behind Pogacar on the Champs-Élysées in 2026, Cyclingnews notes. A minute and 16 would narrow that gap, not close it.
A route built for the Belgian’s strengths
The clock runs twice. Stage 7 is a 38km test from Blois to Chambord through the Loire valley, flat and fast, exactly the terrain where Evenepoel broke a run of Pogacar general-classification dominance in Caen a year ago. The second effort comes on stage 16, a 33km loop around Toulouse that stays largely flat but adds a short, steep kick up the Côte de Pech David, 800 metres at around 12 per cent, inside the final 10 kilometres.
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That late lump complicates the picture. Pogacar’s power-to-weight advantage grows the moment the road tilts upward, and a brief steep ramp inside a time trial has historically played into his hands as much as a flat run plays into Evenepoel’s.
Evenepoel has still won the majority of their recent duels against the clock. A head-to-head tally of the pair’s last ten time trials shows the Belgian ahead, with Pogacar’s wins concentrated on climbing-heavy courses such as the Peyragudes mountain time trial in July 2025, where he put more than two and a half minutes into Evenepoel over 10.9 kilometres.
Then the Pyrenees arrive
Where the route gives Evenepoel the clock, it hands Pogacar the mountains. Three summit finishes are back on the menu, starting at the Grand Colombier on stage 9 (17.4km at 7.1%), continuing to Les Saisies on stage 11, and culminating with the queen stage to the Col du Portet on stage 18, 22 July 2027. That one is 16km at 8.7%, placed at the top of more than 5,000 metres of climbing on the day, and marks the highest point of the race.
The following day stays in the Pyrenees, finishing in Laruns via the Col de Marie Blanque and the Col de Soudet. Pogacar is chasing a record sixth Tour title and will find terrain he has long made his own on the final two mountain days.
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The earlier climbing targets at the Grand Colombier and Les Saisies sit between the two time trials, meaning any damage done there would eat straight into the Chambord gains before Evenepoel can add to them in Toulouse.
Evenepoel, who leads Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe after a 2026-season move from Soudal Quick-Step, has yet to finish higher than second at the Tour. The 2027 Tour sets off from Edinburgh on 2 July 2027 and reaches Paris on 25 July, with the Chambord time trial on stage 7 the first point at which he can start putting the route to the test.
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