Mercedes has won two of the last six races. McLaren has won two. Ferrari has won two. That is what a development race looks like when it slips out of your hands.

Toto Wolff spelled out the problem after last weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix, where Lando Norris took his second straight win and chipped away at Antonelli’s advantage.

“We haven’t got the money to put developments on the car,” Wolff told reporters.

Every team is racing under the same cost cap. Wolff’s argument is that his team has already spent most of its allocation and can only distribute what is left “evenly through the season based on our calculations.”

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Collins: Mercedes has made its bet

Sky Sports F1 analyst Bernie Collins picked the theme up on the network’s The F1 Show podcast. Collins argues Mercedes built its early lead by concentrating development at the front of the season, and is now waiting to see if the buffer holds.

“Mercedes have front-loaded it and that shows a confidence in their power unit,” Collins told the podcast.

“They’ve put their decision-making one way, and it will be interesting to see if they can hold on.”

The last major upgrade Mercedes rolled out was in Canada earlier in the year. Nothing significant arrived in the Netherlands, and The Race reports the next substantial package is not expected until later in the autumn.

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Wolff pushes back on the “front-loading” reading

Wolff was asked directly whether Mercedes over-invested at the start of the season.

“Did we spend too much at the beginning in the initial development? I don’t think so,” he told reporters.

He pointed at reliability rather than strategy, saying Mercedes “left between 50 and 100 points on the table” through power unit failures across both cars. And he suggested the pattern in the paddock might simply reflect different choices.

“Someone might have a different strategy in spending more at the beginning and the middle of the year than towards the end,” Wolff said.

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Not everyone in the paddock takes the money defense at face value. McLaren team principal Andrea Stella has openly questioned whether Mercedes is as constrained as Wolff suggests, pointing to allowances tied to the 2027 power unit regulations as room the team may still have.

Monza is the next test

Kimi Antonelli will take an engine grid penalty at the Italian Grand Prix on 4-6 September, handing his rivals a clean shot at the championship lead before any new Mercedes upgrade arrives.

George Russell and Lewis Hamilton sit tied on 183 points behind Antonelli’s 242. Norris is fourth on 159. Mercedes leads the constructors’ standings over Ferrari by 87 points.

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