On Holding walked into its investor day in Zurich on Tuesday down close to 40% for the year, and walked out with a 13% one-day bounce. The Swiss brand pledged at least CHF 5.6bn in annual sales by 2029, authorised a $1bn share buyback running through the end of 2029, and formally added football and golf to a product line that has yet to include a football boot.

Four days earlier, On had made Kylian Mbappé the anchor of that football push, ending the Real Madrid forward’s more than decade-long relationship with Nike. Thierry Henry, who had been working with the brand since late 2025, was named its first director of football. The first commercial football boot, built with On’s LightSpray robotic manufacturing process, is scheduled for retail release in 2027.

Co-founder and co-CEO Caspar Coppetti framed the plan as one where growth and profit no longer trade off.

“Top-line expansion and margin expansion are not in conflict at On; they are complementary outputs of our Premium Playbook,” Coppetti said.

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Alongside the CHF 5.6bn revenue floor, On is targeting a gross margin above 65% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 22% by 2029, with adjusted EBITDA compounding above 20% a year over the period.

Wall Street splits on the Mbappé bet

Evercore ISI’s Michael Binetti called the signing “a direct challenge to Nike and Adidas (which have a near-monopoly in the category)” and said he expects the football investment to act as a near-term catalyst for the stock. Telsey Advisory Group’s Cristina Fernández pointed to On’s tennis playbook, where the brand saw a near 300% jump in tennis apparel sales after Roland Garros headlines for Flavio Cobolli and Joao Fonseca.

Citi’s Paul Lejuez said the move exposes On to the roughly $30bn global football market on top of its existing $105bn running arena, but warned that persuading further Nike-signed athletes to switch may prove harder than the Mbappé coup implies. Jefferies was blunter, calling the partnership “an attempt to open another growth avenue as the running category in the US market slows”.

After the Q2 miss, a buyback

The bullish investor day landed in a market that had punished the stock. On’s Q2 2026 net sales came in at CHF 850.3m, below analyst estimates of CHF 878.16m, and the shares fell 22% on the release to a roughly two-year low. Americas revenue growth decelerated to 13% in constant currency from 17% a quarter earlier, marking a second straight quarter of slowdown in On’s largest market.

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Full-year guidance was retained at low-20% constant-currency growth, with the gross margin floor lifted to 65%. CFO Frank Sluis defended the trade-off at the time.

“We do not compromise our full-price integrity for volume, even in the heavily promotional environment we saw this quarter,” Sluis said.

Contract terms, still undisclosed

On has not disclosed the financial terms of the Mbappé deal, and the announcement drew a muted first-day reaction: On rose about 5% on 18 September, Nike slipped 1%. On’s market capitalisation heading into investor day sat near $9.1bn, against Nike’s $53.9bn.

The first On football boots, developed with Mbappé’s input, are due at retail in 2027.

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