Speaking to Betpack, Montoya put it bluntly.

“I don’t think he is going to be world champion again.”

The verdict lands with Hamilton sitting second in the 2026 Drivers’ Championship on 169 points, 50 behind Mercedes’ Andrea Kimi Antonelli after the Hungarian Grand Prix, with 11 of the season’s 22 rounds still to run.

Montoya still credits both Ferrari’s progress and Hamilton’s own recovery from a bruising first campaign in red.

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“His performances show he is on the right path; it shows Ferrari is on the right path and they’re doing an amazing job,” Montoya told the same outlet.

“They’re really being smart about how they go about their business and their strategies.”

From retirement to two or three more years

The shift on Hamilton’s future is the newer half of Montoya’s message. Where he had previously suggested the Briton might step away at the end of this season if the Ferrari move never delivered, he now expects the opposite.

“Hamilton isn’t leaving for at least two or three years,” Montoya told Colombian outlet AS Colombia.

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“If Ferrari carries on as it is and Hamilton keeps performing like this, Hamilton won’t retire.”

Hamilton has reason to believe the trajectory is real. His victory at the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona ended a 686-day drought and made him, at 41, the oldest Grand Prix winner since Jack Brabham in 1970.

His Ferrari deal, reported to run to the end of 2027 with an option for a further year, leaves him room to keep chasing.

Bearman and Camara pay the price

That arithmetic is unforgiving for Ferrari’s academy. Oliver Bearman is on loan at Haas, and Formula 2’s Rafael Camara is the next name on the list. A Hamilton who signs on for another two or three seasons is a Hamilton blocking a seat.

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Montoya spelled the cost out.

“If Camara were to join Formula 1 and they thought Camara was cooler, then Bearman wouldn’t come back, because it’s all about timing,” he told AS Colombia.

“It’s about how attractive you are, how people see you at that moment.”

The concern rings loudest for Bearman, who was groomed inside the Ferrari system and whose Haas seat was arranged in part to keep him within reach of Maranello. If the door home closes for another year and a fresher prospect walks past him, that pipeline breaks.

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50 points down with 11 to go

Hamilton resumes his season at the Dutch Grand Prix on 23 August, Zandvoort’s first Formula 1 sprint weekend and its last race on the calendar before the venue drops off in 2027. He has already outperformed the version of him Montoya wrote off; the next 11 rounds will decide whether he can also outperform the version Montoya now describes.

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