The 2026 Tour de France enters its fourth stage on Tuesday, July 7, with a challenging 181.9 km route from Carcassonne to Foix. According to TV 2, this hilly 181.9 km stage, featuring 2,784 meters of elevation gain, is widely expected to favor the breakaway specialists rather than spark a major battle among the general classification contenders.

The stage, described as “kissing” the Pyrenees rather than fully embracing them, avoids the highest peaks and steepest gradients typically associated with the mountain range. Instead, it features a series of demanding ascents, including the Col de Coudons (10.9 km, 5.4%) and the Col de Montségur (6.9 km, 6.2%), before descending into Foix. As TV 2 notes, riders will also have to contend with extreme heat, with temperatures forecast to reach 38°C at the start in Carcassonne, around 37°C at the finish in Foix, and approximately 35°C throughout the valleys.

Yellow jersey up for grabs in Carcassonne to Foix

Foix has established itself as one of the Tour de France’s most successful breakaway finishes, hosting the race four times this century (2022, 2017, 2012 and 2008). Three of those editions were won by riders from the breakaway, reinforcing its reputation as a stage that rewards aggressive racing.

Cycling expert Emil Axelgaard, writing for TV 2, believes Stage 4 is likely to follow a similar script.

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“This is a classic breakaway stage where the GC riders just need to get through safely without losing time,” Axelgaard explained. “It certainly cannot be ruled out that the jersey will change hands, as Tadej Pogacar will surely be happy to lend it out, but it will hardly be to a rider who will play a role in the general classification in the long run.”

According to TV 2, Tadej Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates is expected to have little interest in defending the yellow jersey, instead preferring to hand it over to a rider outside the general classification battle. The tactic, previously used in the 2024 and 2025 editions, allows the team to conserve energy and avoid the daily responsibilities that come with leading the race.

“My clear expectation is that UAE will do nothing to retain the jersey and would prefer to be without it for the coming days,” Axelgaard added.

That could also suit Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike, who are unlikely to take over the race lead if Pogacar’s team is willing to let the breakaway gain enough time.

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Favorites emerge for a hilly showdown

With the GC contenders expected to take a conservative approach, TV 2 highlights Maxim Van Gils as the leading favorite for the stage. Despite nursing a knee issue after Stage 3, the Belgian has already demonstrated excellent climbing form and possesses a strong sprint from a reduced group.

Mathias Vacek and Quinn Simmons are rated just behind Van Gils. Vacek has impressed throughout the season despite crashing on Stage 3, while Simmons continues to build momentum after a series of strong performances in hilly one-day races.

Other riders tipped by TV 2 to challenge for victory include:

• Romain Gregoire

• Filippo Ganna

• Lennert Van Eetvelt

• Harold Tejada

• Valentin Paret-Peintre

Among the Danish hopefuls, Mads Pedersen is viewed as having the strongest chance if the race unfolds in his favor, although the final climb could prove decisive. Magnus Cort and Michael Valgren are considered outside contenders, while Anthon Charmig is expected to ride conservatively following his recent crash.

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Stage 4 is scheduled to start at 13:25 CET and finish at approximately 17:35 CET, setting the stage for what TV 2 expects to be an exciting day for the Tour’s breakaway specialists.

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